COVER STORY
the U.S. economy is already in an economic recession (generally defined as two consec - utive quarters of decline in gross domestic product). Retailers’ outlook for their own sales growth remained strong, with 69% pre - dicting that their sales will grow in the first six months of 2026, including 24% who predicted sales growth of at least 5%. One-in- five retailer respondents (20%) predicted that their sales will decline in the coming months, and 10% predicted that their year-over-year sales would be flat. Competition outweighs inflation as biggest challenge Inflation declined as a concern for retailers, although 79% of retail respondents still cited cost increases as a challenge in the most recent survey. That compares with 93% who said inflation was a concern heading into 2025, when the new tariffs were still in the planning stages. Eighty-six percent of retailers cited com - petition from other retail channels as the biggest challenge they face in 2026, how - ever. That outpaced inflation/elevated costs, which was cited by 64% of retail respon - dents as their top obstacle in the year ahead. Asked to elaborate on the challenges they expect to face, one retailer specifically cited competition from online retailers, Walmart and dollar stores. Others cited ongoing inflation and concerns about the overall economy. “Inflation and economic fragility,” said one retailer. “Weakening economic conditions,” said another. Labor remains a challenge Labor also remained a significant challenge, cited by 43% of retail respondents, including one who noted the impact that rising labor costs are having on manufacturers. “Plants will continue to struggle with labor,” the retailer said. Another retailer cited the multifaceted challenge of managing the high costs of labor while at the same time keeping a lid on prices to attract consumers who have less spending power. “Employee wages/benefits are a constant challenge to work with,” the retailer said.
How do you anticipate your sales will perform in the first six months of 2026?
All respondents Food retailers
Increase 5-10% (or more)
22%
24%
Increase 1-5%
40%
45%
Stay the same
19%
10%
Decrease 1%-5%
13%
17%
Decrease 5-10%
5%
3%
Decrease 10% (or more)
–
2%
When thinking about my business in 2026, inflation is a major concern.
All respondents
Food retailers
43% Agree 35% Somewhat Agree 17% Neutral 5% Somewhat Disagree 0% Disagree
45% Agree 34% Somewhat Agree 17% Neutral 3% Somewhat Disagree 0% Disagree
Do you plan to grow store count in 2026?
Yes
55%
No
45%
WINTER 2026 SUPERMARKETNEWS.COM 13
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